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Entrepreneurs Panel

Charlie Mullins
Brian Hay
Steve Purdham
Michael Oliver
Laura Tenison
David Pollock
Julie Meyer
Jennie Johnson
Debbie Pierce
Tony Caldeira
Jeremy Roberts
Richard O'Sullivan

Inflation figures wrong-foot economists

The core UK inflation rate has remained unchanged for the second month running, confounding economists’ expectations of a fall and indicating that the spectre of deflation may be receding. In the year to July 2009, latest government statistics reveal, the consumer prices index (CPI) rose by 1.8 per cent, unchanged from June.

In the year to July, the all items retail prices index (RPI) fell by 1.4 per cent, compared with a fall of 1.6 per cent in June. Over the same period, the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments index (RPIX) rose by 1.2 per cent, up from 1.0 per cent in June.

The largest downward contribution to change in the CPI annual rate came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, with prices falling this year but rising a year ago across a range of products. The largest upward contribution to change in the CPI annual rate came from recreation and culture.

The largest upward contribution to the change in the RPI annual rate came from motoring expenditure due principally to purchase of motor vehicles. Car prices rose this year compared with a fall a year ago.

The largest downward contribution to the 12-month all items RPI rate came from housing which had a downward pull of 2.8 percentage points. Overall, prices fell by 11.3 per cent on the year with the main contributions coming from mortgage interest payments and house depreciation.

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